For the time being, investors seem to be in risk-on mode if the recent Bank of America poll, which shows that the US stock optimism is at its highest level since 2021, can be trusted.

What everyone got wrong coming into 2023 was the forecast of an unavoidable hard landing of the US economy, which later turned into a soft landing to finally no landing. This story may just be postponed by a year according to some strategists.

The lesson here is that unless you have a crystal ball, you should remain invested. This year is no exception. If you were not invested in January and November, your performance so far this year would be negative.

Then the US commerce department just released Q3 GDP growth figures at 4.9%. The growth was supported by continued consumption despite dwindling savings rates, residential investments despite high mortgages, and government spending in the context of ongoing debt ceiling issues.

The September effect (market inefficiency, whereby the month of September is statistically a down month) was quite evident this year, with the global market down -4.45% in dollar terms.